June 13, 2024

Yankees’ Playoff Chances in 2024: A Statistical Analysis

1 min read
Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

The Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024 are not optimistic according to stat analysts at Baseball Reference. They project the team to have a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games, which is worse than the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, Fangraphs predict the Yankees to win 88 games, the fourth-most in all of baseball. BetRivers Sportsbook is even more bullish on the Yankees, projecting them to win 91.5 games, with the third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650.

BetRivers gives the Yankees a 77.01 percent chance to make the playoffs, a significant difference compared to Baseball Reference’s projection. Despite this pessimism, Baseball Reference’s projections are based on their Simple Rating System, which calculates run differential and strength of schedule from the previous year’s prior 100 games. This equation does not take into account injuries, players, or variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty.

Despite these projections, significant offseason acquisitions by the Yankees have improved their offense greatly. Juan Soto is one such acquisition that should help turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, the Yankees have a chance to turn things around and improve their chances of making it into the postseason in 2024.

Leave a Reply

Copyright © All rights reserved. | Newsphere by AF themes.